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The Parlay Addict

You ran 94 parlays this season. You won 11. The house thanks you.

Total Bets
247
Total P&L
-$1,847
Overall ROI
-14.9%
Total Vig Paid
-$892

to the books

The Verdict

Let's get the headline out of the way: you lost $1,847 this season on 247 bets. Your overall ROI is -14.9%, which is significantly worse than the average recreational bettor (-5 to -8%). But here's the thing — you're not just unlucky. Your betting patterns reveal three structural problems that explain almost all of your losses. First, the parlays. You placed 94 parlays this season — that's 38% of all your bets — with an ROI of -42.3%. You won 11 of them. The house loved you for this. Parlay vig compounds exponentially: a 3-leg parlay at standard juice costs you roughly 15% in edge before the games even start. You effectively donated $680 to sportsbooks through parlay vig alone. Second, your timing is consistently bad. Your average CLV is -18 basis points, meaning by the time the market closed, you were on the wrong side of the line movement 62% of the time. You're betting late, after sharp money has already moved the number. The one bright spot: your NFL spread bets actually show promise. Your CLV on straight spreads is +8 bps, suggesting you have some genuine feel for NFL lines. If you stripped away the parlays and focused on single-game NFL spreads with better line shopping, you'd be in a very different position.

Only 28.4% of your bets were +EV at placement. That means 71.6% of the time, you were placing bets where the math was already against you before the game started.

Your average CLV of -18 bps means the closing line consistently moved against you. The market thought your bets were wrong, and the market was right.

Your 3 Biggest Leaks

Parlay Addiction

94 parlays at -42.3% ROI. You won 11 and lost 83. Compounding vig destroyed you.

-$680.00/yr

Late Line Grabbing

Average CLV of -18 bps. You consistently bet after sharp money moved the line.

-$445.00/yr

No Line Shopping

Betting only on DraftKings cost you an average of 8 cents per bet vs best available.

-$198.00/yr

Avg CLV
-18 bps
EV+ Rate
28.4%
Sharp Rate (A/B)
16.2%
Parlay ROI
-42.3%

94 parlays

CLV Over Time

ROI by Bet Type

Sharp Score Distribution

What To Do Next

1

Cut parlays to max 10% of your bets. Replace with straight bets on NFL spreads where you show +CLV.

+6-8% ROI improvement

2

Open accounts on 3+ books (Pinnacle, Circa, FanDuel) and always take the best available line.

+2-3% ROI from line shopping alone

3

Place bets earlier in the week. Your Monday-placed NFL bets show +8 CLV vs game-day bets at -25 CLV.

+1-2% ROI from better timing

What If...

If you never placed a parlay

+$680.00

If you paid zero vig (Pinnacle pricing)

+$892.00

If you skipped your worst -EV bets

+$523.00

If you bet flat $25 units

+$277.00

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Fumbled is a data analysis tool for informational purposes only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.